Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 05 November 2014

…. Good Rain Chances Today into Tonight ….
…. Sunshine Returns Late Week through the Weekend and Into Early Next Week ….
…. Another Cold Front Due on Saturday with Another by Next Tuesday ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi and then extends west southwestward from southern Louisiana to along just onshore of Texas coast and then westward into northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over southern Missouri as well as the intermountain area of the northwestern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward across Texas and northern Mexico with a strong upper air low pressure disturbance along the west coast of Mexico. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are southwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

The cold front has settled southeastward to just onshore of the Texas coast where it has become a stationary front. Atmospheric moisture.. at all levels of the atmosphere.. is moving north and northeastward up and over the top of the colder air at the surface in a process referred to as “overrunning.” Clouds and light overrunning precipitation will continue today and tonight into early tomorrow although heavier precipitation is now expected to be south and southeast of the local area in the vicinity of the front. As a result, the flash flood watch has been canceled for the Austin metro area but still remains in effect for areas to our south through southeast.

In the wake of today’s clouds and rain, a dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern with sunshine returning with temperatures actually a little below seasonal averages for the Friday through Monday /Veteran’s Day/ and Tuesday time period. Several dry cold fronts will pass the area with the first due on Saturday afternoon with the other one due next Tuesday. They will basically reinforce the dry and stable fall weather pattern over the area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through the next seven day period.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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