Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 24 October 2014

…. A Mostly Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Temperatures Warm To Near Record Levels for the Upcoming Weekend ….
…. A Weak Cold Front Due Next Tuesday ….
…. Watching for a More Substantial Storm System and Cold Front by the End of Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure is over southeastern Arkansas with another located over southwestern Colorado. Between those areas of high pressure, a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends south southwestward from central Nebraska into western Kansas and across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an area of upper level low pressure is situated north-south from the Great Lakes into the southeastern USA. Upper level high pressure is over the southwestern USA and the northern Mexico west of our local area. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are north northwesterly 30 to 35 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues across the area with the upper level high pressure area.. to our west.. “capping” the atmosphere overhead. As a result, we see little in the way of clouds and no precipitation in our forecast. In addition, afternoon high temperatures are expected to be near record high levels. This pattern is expected to continue into the early part of next week as the stable weather pattern persists.

A weak cold front is expected to move southeastward into our area by next Tuesday night into early Wednesday as it washes out. Current guidance suggests that we could see a few rain showers and thunderstorms as the front washes out overhead.

Longer range guidance shows.. even though with low confidence.. that another stronger low pressure storm system and cold front will approach and move across the area by the end of next week into the following weekend. Initial rainfall probabilities are higher with this system.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through next Tuesday. My confidence falls back to medium to high for Tuesday night into Wednesday regarding the first frontal timing and associated rain chances. By next Thursday into Friday, my confidence falls to low in regards to the potential second storm system and cold front timing and associated rain chances.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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