Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 17 October 2014

…. A Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. A Weak Cold Front Moving Southeastward Through Area by Early Tomorrow ….
…. Another “Backdoor” Type Cold Front Moves Through the Area Monday ….

On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure is over the central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving southeastward from southeastern Missouri into Arkansas.. southeast Oklahoma into a low pressure area over the Red River country of north Texas and southern Oklahoma then into far west Texas and then northwestward through New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. upper level low pressure is situated over the Great Lakes with another low pressure disturbance located over the coast of southern California. Upper level high pressure has become reestablished from central and coastal Texas into the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are variable to westerly less than 20 mph.

A stable fall weather pattern continues across our area.

The cold front.. to our north.. will slowly move southward through our area by early Saturday morning but all it will do is somewhat reinforce the air mass in place across the area. Even though patchy fog will develop around sunrise tomorrow just before the front moves through the area.. I do not expect any precipitation with this front. Although it will not be much, temperatures will come down a couple of degrees over the weekend with this front.

The next cold front is expected by early Monday but it will be more of a “backdoor” type of cold front… which defines a cold front that moves into the southern plains more from the northeast from the Mississippi Valley. After including it a few days ago, I have dropped the chance of precipitation with this front. I just don’t think there will be enough low level moisture return ahead of this front to maintain those rain chances. As we’ll see in the front late Friday into early Saturday, this front will act to reinforce the drier air mass in place across the area for early and mid parts of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven day forecast period with exact frontal timing being the issue that reduces my confidence slightly.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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