Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 16 October 2014
…. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. A Weak Cold Front Moving Southeastward Through Area by Early Saturday ….
…. Another “Backdoor” Type Cold Front Moves Through the Area Monday ….
On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure is over Arkansas and southward into the western Gulf of Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from a low pressure area over southwestern Nebraska and northwest Kansas into the western Texas panhandle and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are becoming more south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep eastward moving upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is located from the southern parts of Hudson Bay southward through Kentucky and Tennessee and the northern Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure from northern Mexico into the southwest USA. Another trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward just offshore of the west coast of the USA. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are north northwesterly 25 to 30 mph.
A dry and stable fall weather pattern continues across our area.
A reinforcing cold front will move through our area by Friday night into early Saturday but all it will do is somewhat reinforce the air mass in place across the area. I do not expect any precipitation with this front. Although it will not be much, temperatures will come down a couple of degrees over the weekend with this front.
The next cold front is expected by late Sunday night into early Monday but it will be more of a “backdoor” type of cold front… which defines a cold front that moves into the southern plains more from the northeast from the Mississippi Valley. After including it a few days ago, I have dropped the chance of precipitation with this front. I just don’t think there will be enough low level moisture return ahead of this front to maintain those rain chances. As we’ll see in the front late Friday into early Saturday, this front will act to reinforce the drier air mass in place across the area for early and mid parts of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven day forecast period with exact frontal timing being the issue that reduces my confidence slightly.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel