Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 15 October 2014

…. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern For the Rest of the Week ….
…. Humidity Increasing with More Clouds by the Weekend ….
…. Watching Several Weak Cold Fronts in the Latter Part of the Seven Day Forecast ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a surface low pressure area is over the Great Lakes with a cold front extending southeastward into western Pennsylvania into North and South Carolina and northern Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Eastward moving high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered along a line from southern Colorado into central Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light westerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep eastward moving upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is located from the southern parts of Hudson Bay southward through Kentucky and Tennessee and the northern Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure from northern Mexico into the southwest USA. Another trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward just offshore of the west coast of the USA. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are north northwesterly 25 to 30 mph.

A dry and stable fall weather pattern continues across our area and is forecast to continue over the next couple of days with abundant sunshine.

Another reinforcing cold front will move through our area by late Friday into Saturday but all it will do is somewhat reinforce the air mass in place across the area. I do not expect any precipitation with this front.

The next cold front is expected by late Sunday into early Monday but it will be more of a backdoor type of cold front (coming in from the northeast). I have included a slim chance of precipitation with this front, but we need to see whether enough low level moisture can return ahead of this front to actually maintain those rain chances. In addition, the latest guidance is suggesting that this fronts effect locally will be less than we’ve been originally thinking. If anything, like the Friday/Saturday front, this front will act to reinforce the drier air mass in place
across the area for early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Saturday into Sunday.. and then medium to high for Monday into Tuesday (mainly in reference to the second front, whether it will actually get here and any associated rain chances).

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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