Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 14 October 2014

…. A Dry Stable Fall Weather Pattern For the Rest of the Week into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface low pressure area is over northwestern Illinois with a cold front extending southward into western Kentucky and western Alabama into the Gulf of Mexico southeast of New Orleans then across the western Gulf onto the coast of middle Mexico. Southeastward moving high pressure.. to the northwest of the front.. is centered over western Colorado and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are west northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep eastward moving upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is located from the southern parts of Hudson Bay southward through Missouri and into Arkansas and Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are north northwesterly 55 to 60 mph.

A dry and stable fall weather pattern continues across our area and is forecast to continue over the next few days with abundant sunshine and below average temperatures. Overnight low temperatures will fall to the lowest.. so far.. of the fall season with some 40s over the low lying outlying areas of the Texas hill country over the next few mornings.

Another reinforcing cold front will move through our area by late Friday into Saturday but all it will do is reinforce the air mass in place across the area. I do not expect any precipitation with this front.

Another cold front is expected by late Sunday into early Monday. I have included a slim chance of precipitation with this front, but we need to see whether enough low level moisture can return ahead of this front to actually maintain those rain chances. Like the Friday front, this front will act to reinforce the drier air mass which we see in the coming days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the next seven day period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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