Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Monday / 13 October 2014

…. A Strong Cold Front Sweeping Across Texas ….
…. A Dry Stable Fall Weather Pattern to Prevail For the Rest of the Week into the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a deepening surface low pressure area is over central Oklahoma with a cold front extending southward along the IH35 corridor then to the Rio Grande River near Laredo. High pressure.. to the northwest of the front.. is centered over Montana and Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are gusty northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep eastward moving upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure is located from south central Canada down into central Texas. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly at 60 to 70 mph. As the trough moves easterly, our strong upper winds will become northwesterly over the next 12 hours.

Under the deep upper level trough overhead, a strong surface cold front is surging east southeastward through Texas. A line of rain showers and thunderstorms is along and ahead of the eastward moving front. Even though it will not involve us, severe weather (hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and even stronger tornadoes) is going to be a big problem over the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern USA over the next two days.

A dry and stable fall weather pattern is expected across our area over the next few days with abundant sunshine and below average temperatures. Overnight low temperatures will fall to the lowest.. so far.. of the fall season with some 40s over the low lying outlying areas of the Texas hill country over the next few mornings.

Another reinforcing cold front will move through our area by late Friday into Saturday but all it will do is reinforce the air mass in place across the area. I do not expect any precipitation with this front.. indeed, the next seven days look dry across our area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the next seven day period.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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