Updated 800am CT – Friday / 03 October 2014

…. Cooler and Less Humid ….
…. South Southeasterly Surface Winds Return Sunday ….
…. Another Weaker Cold Front Due Monday Night ….

On this Friday morning…. a southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from west Tennessee and central Louisiana to along the Texas coast. A secondary cold front is over northern Oklahoma and northwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep trough of low pressure is moving eastward from central Canada south southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

With the axis of the upper level trough now to the east of the area, in the wake of the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms and the cold front that passed the area late last night, a drier and cooler weather pattern is now dominating our south central Texas weather. Surface high pressure.. building into the area in the wake of the cold front.. will continue to settle southward into the area today into tonight.

By tomorrow into tomorrow night, the center of the high pressure area will move far enough east of the area that we’ll see an east wind become more southeasterly. Low level moisture will start to return to the area by Sunday into Monday.

Another weaker cold front will move quickly through the area by late Monday into Monday evening but I don’t expect any precipitation with the frontal passage. The passage of the front will really only act to slightly reinforce the air mass in place across the area Sunday into Monday. week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence through the next seven days is very high.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel