Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 30 September 2014
…. Above Average Temperatures For Now ….
…. Cold Front Still on Tap for Late Thursday ….
On this Tuesday morning…. an old frontal boundary is stretched out from Florida westward through the Gulf of Mexico to off the Texas coast. Low pressure and another cold front extends southward from Colorado into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is over the northeastern USA with another trough of low pressure moving east northeasterly over the northern Rockies and intermountain west. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is located over central Mexico. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are west southwesterly less than 20 mph.
A stable summer like weather pattern continues across the area with a south southeasterly surface wind flow across the area.
By late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, a cold front will sweep east southeastward through the area with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected just ahead of and along the advancing cold front. The atmosphere will not be highly unstable, so rain chances will not be as high as they could be. The latest guidance suggests that we could see one quarter to one half inch of rain as the front passes.
Cooler and drier air along with abundant sunshine will prevail in the wake of the front Friday into the weekend.
As the surface high pressure area.. behind the front.. moves into the southern Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly wind and a return to low level moisture by Sunday into Sunday night and into early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence through the next seven days is very high.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel