Updated 800am CT – Monday / 22 September 2014

…. Weak Cold Front Passes Today with A Slim Chance of Rain ….
…. Overall, A Dry Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a weak cold front extends westward from central Mississippi to central Louisiana across central Texas. Behind the front, surface high pressure area is moving southward through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. As a result of this surface weather pattern, as the front moves south, our local surface winds are becoming northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is over the eastern third of the USA with another trough of low pressure moving ashore onto the west coast. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. has become reestablished from northern Mexico into the southwestern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northerly at 10 to 20 mph.

As we start the week, a weak cold front is moving across our area with the possibility of a few rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves by any given location.

In the wake of the front.. a dry and stable late summer/early fall weather pattern prevails and is expected to continue through the next seven day forecast period.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence over the next seven days is high to very high.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel