Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 4 September 2014
…. Slim Rain Chances Today with Little Change in Our Local Weather Pattern ….
On this Thursday morning…. high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi valley and the southeastern USA with a low pressure trough over west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are east southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal.. that is, west to east.. upper level wind pattern continues over the northern and central USA with an upper air low pressure disturbance moving through the westerly wind flow over northern Montana west southwestward into northern California. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. covers the southern USA from Georgia westward across Texas and then into the southwestern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are relatively light and variable at 10 to 20 mph.
Afternoon heat will combine with available low level moisture and limited atmospheric instability (the upper level high above is holding pretty tough and is quite stable!!) to give us isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening rain showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon into this evening.
For the balance of the seven day forecast period.. tomorrow into early next week.. it looks dry with a typical summer weather pattern prevailing. A cold front is forecast is move southward into north Texas by Saturday into Sunday but the front is expected, at this point, to remain north of our local area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through tonight (reference any precipitation timing and amounts)… then high to very high tomorrow (I’m a little concerned I may have to add minimal afternoon rain chances). Friday night and beyond in the seven day forecast period, my confidence is very high.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel