Updated 800am CT – Monday / 18 August 2014
…. Slim Afternoon Thunderstorms Chances Today and Tomorrow ….
…. An Otherwise Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
On this Monday morning…. a weak cold front extends westward from the Missouri bootheel into northwestern Arkansas into Oklahoma into a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the low over southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is located to our southeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida with another over western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is located from Texas west/northwestward into the southern Rockies. A broad diffuse trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward from eastern Canada into the eastern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southwesterly at 8 to 18 mph.
Weak upper air disturbances caused scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to our northwest yesterday and will likely combine with daytime heating.. low level moisture and instability to give us slim afternoon thunderstorms today and again tomorrow.
Rain chances will disappear after tomorrow as the overall dry and stable summer weather pattern continues as upper level high pressure restrengthens again over the area. Temperatures will be at or slightly above seasonal averages. This weather pattern will persist through late week into the weekend and the early part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through tomorrow (reference precipitation timing and amounts)… then very high tomorrow through the balance of the seven day forecast period.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel