Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 12 August 2014

…. Cold Front Dying Out to our South ….
…. Rain Chances Dying Out Quickly as Well ….
…. Drier and More Stable Summer Weather Pattern Returns Tomorrow Through Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from a surface low pressure area over western Tennessee southwestward through northern Louisiana.. then turns into a weakening stationary front from east Texas to south of the Austin area to near Del Rio. Surface high pressure is to the east of the front over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico while the high pressure.. behind the front.. is located over the plains and eastern Rockies. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light north northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is located from Texas northwestward through the Rockies and into southern Idaho. A trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay into the middle Mississippi valley with another one along the west coast of the USA from west of Washington to off the central coast of California. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are generally light and variable.

The cold front.. that passed southward through the local area last evening.. is situated east-to-west to the south of the area this morning. As the front washes out later tonight into tomorrow, daytime heating will combine with residual moisture and atmospheric instability to produce widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today into early this evening. Temperatures today will be down a few degrees because of the front.

By tomorrow into late week, the front will wash out and we’ll see a drier and more stable weather pattern once again take hold as upper level high pressure strengthens again over the area. This summer weather pattern will persist through the weekend with temperatures rebounding once again.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today into early tonight.. then very high late tonight through the balance of the seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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