Updated 800am CT – Monday / 11 August 2014
…. Cold Front Moving Southward Through North Texas ….
…. Better Chance of Thunderstorms This Afternoon Through Tonight ….
…. Drier and More Stable Summer Weather Pattern Returns Tomorrow Through Late Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a southward moving cold front extends from a surface low pressure area over the Missouri bootheel through central Arkansas and through north Texas around the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex then west northwestward to around Childress. Surface high pressure is to our east over southwestern Louisiana. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is located from Texas northwestward through the Rockies and into southern Idaho. A developing and deepening trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay into the middle Mississippi valley with another one off the west coast of the USA from west of Washington to off the central coast of California. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are generally light and variable.
The dry and stable weather pattern continued across the area through the weekend. Under the upper level area of high pressure, heat has continued to build… as evidence of that, the 102 degree high at ABIA yesterday (Sunday) and the 101 degree high at Mabry.
A weak upper air disturbance will move east southeastward through north Texas later today into tonight and will push the surface cold front.. currently over north Texas.. southward into the local area. The atmospheric lift associated with the cold front will combine with available low level moisture.. intense daytime heating and atmospheric instability to produce rain showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon through tonight. The cold front will pass to the south of the area with temperatures coming down a few degrees over the next 24 hours.
By late tomorrow, the front will wash out and we’ll see a drier and more stable weather pattern once again take hold as upper level high pressure strengthens again over the area.
This summer weather pattern will persist through late week into the weekend with temperatures rebounding once again.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today through tonight into tomorrow.. then very high tomorrow night through the balance of the seven day forecast period.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel