Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 8 August 2014

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Near or Above 100 Degree Afternoon Highs Over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Friday morning…. a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southwestward from southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle and west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is to our east over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is sandwiched over the southern Rockies and the southern plains between troughs of low pressure one that is situated over the eastern third of the USA and the other one over the western third of the country. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are light and variable.

Surface high pressure continues to the east of the area; it is moving eastward as lower pressure continues to develops to our west. This has resulted in a south southeasterly surface wind flow. With the south southeasterly wind flow, we’ll see some late night and early morning low clouds over the coming days. Overall, even though I expect the dry and stable weather pattern to continue across the area. Under the upper level area of high pressure, heat has continued to build… as evidence of that, the 103 degree high at ABIA yesterday and the 102 degree high at Mabry.

While the upper level high pressure may weaken just a tad over the next day or so, by late in the weekend into next week, the upper level high pressure area will once again intensify its hold on Texas with daytime high temperatures rising again with highs well above average.. and above 100 degrees.. by early into mid parts of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the next seven days.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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