Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 7 August 2014
…. A Mostly Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Very Limited Rain Chances Over the Next Seven Days ….
On this Thursday morning…. a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southwestward from southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle and west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is to our east over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure is sandwiched over the southern Rockies and the southern plains between troughs of low pressure one that is situated over the eastern third of the USA and the other one over the western third of the country. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are light and variable.
Surface high pressure continues to the east of the area; it is moving eastward as lower pressure continues to develops to our west. This has resulted in a south southeasterly surface wind flow. With the return south southeasterly wind flow, we’ll see a bit of an increase in clouds over the coming days. Overall, even though I expect the mostly dry and stable weather pattern to continue across the area, it is possible that we could see, just about any afternoon through the end of the week and into Saturday, very isolated afternoon thunderstorms with the afternoon heat and humidity. I think the probability of rain at any given location is not enough to officially mention in the forecast but if you have afternoon and early evening outdoor plans over the next day or two, keep an eye on the sky.
By late in the weekend into next week, the upper level high pressure area will intensify its hold on Texas with daytime high temperatures rising again with any slim chance of afternoon thunderstorms decreasing.
Overall, over the next seven days, temperatures will be near to slightly above average with no precipitation expected.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high over the next seven days (very limited rain chances tomorrow through Saturday being the main issue).
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel