Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 31 July 2014
…. Increased Thunderstorm Chances Today into Tomorrow with Cold Front ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern by the Weekend into Next Week ….
On this Thursday morning…. a southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from the Dallas/Ft Worth area to south of San Angelo into southwest Texas to near El Paso and into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds.. being ahead of the front.. are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over the southwestern USA. A upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends from the eastern Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region and the southeastern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly at 8 to 15 mph.
A northwesterly wind aloft continues overhead which allows the front to our northwest, reacting to that more pronounced northwesterly wind aloft, to move southeastward through Texas and the local area by later today with more clouds.. better rain chances and a slightly cooler temperatures. This more unstable pattern will persist… with the front to our south and the northwesterly wind aloft.. through tomorrow.
A more stable weather pattern will develop over the weekend into next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high today through tomorrow (rainfall amounts and precipitation timing being the issues). My confidence rises back to very high for the weekend into next week.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel