Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 30 July 2014
…. Increased Thunderstorm Chances Again Tomorrow and Friday ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern by the Weekend into Next Week ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a stationary front extends northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico across our area into far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are variable depending on your location in relation to the front.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over the southwestern USA. A upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends from the eastern Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region and the southeastern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly at 8 to 15 mph.
A northeasterly wind aloft has returned to our area. The weakening stationary front is washing out overhead and will shift back north of the Austin metro area.
As another upper air low pressure disturbance moves in from the northwest by late tonight into tomorrow.. the front to our north, reacting to the more pronounced northerly wind aloft, will once again surge through Texas and the local area by late tomorrow night into Thursday with more clouds.. better rain chances and a slightly cooler temperatures. While computer guidance over the past day or two indicates lower rain chances with this system locally, I will still keep scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected as the unusual summer cold front approaches the Texas coast. This more unstable pattern will persist… with the front to our south and the northwesterly wind aloft.. through late week.
It appears that a more stable weather pattern will develop by the weekend into early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through today. My confidence falls back to medium tomorrow through Friday (still, rain chances, rain amounts and timing being the issues). My confidence rises back to very high for the weekend into early next week.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel