Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 29 July 2014
…. Thunderstorm Chances Today and Tonight ….
…. Better Rain Chances Late Week ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a stationary front extends westward from southern Mississippi and Alabama into southeast Texas and overhead of the Austin area then into far west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, being just north of the stationary front, our local surface winds are light northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over west Texas northwestward into Utah and southern Idaho. A upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. is deepening and extends from the eastern Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region and the southeastern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are becoming more north northeasterly at 8 to 15 mph.
As the upper level high pressure area continues to slowly move more northwest of our area and the upper air trough to our east strengthens.. a north northeasterly wind aloft has returned to our area. The weakening stationary front has made it to south of Austin this morning. The front.. in combination with daytime heating and more unstable air mass overhead.. will produce widely scattered to scattered rain showers during the afternoon hours today into the evening hours tonight. By late tonight, the front will return back north of the Austin metro area.
As the upper air low pressure trough to our east continues to deepen.. the front to our north, reacting to the more pronounced north northeasterly wind aloft and upper air disturbances within that flow, will once again surge through Texas and the local area by late tomorrow night into Thursday with more clouds.. better rain chances and a little cooler temperatures. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected as the unusual summer cold front approaches the Texas coast. This more unstable pattern will persist… with the front to our south and the northwesterly wind aloft.. through late week.
It appears that a more stable weather pattern will develop by the weekend into early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through tomorrow. My confidence falls to medium Thursday through Friday (still, rain chances, rain amounts and timing being the issues). My confidence rises back to very high for the weekend into early next week.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel