Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 23 July 2014

…. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. No Mention of Rain Through the Seven Day Forecast Period ….
…. Potential Cold Front into Texas by Middle into Late Parts of Next Week ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends westward from the lower Mississippi Valley westward into northeast Texas. A trough.. or line.. extends southward from southeastern Colorado into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over central and west Texas and the southeastern Rockies. An upper air disturbance is over  southeastern Louisiana. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northeasterly 15 to 25 mph.

The upper level high pressure area continues overhead and to our immediate west and northwest.. this is keeping the atmospheric cap.. or “lid”..  in place with the dry summer weather pattern continuing as a result. Late night and early morning low cloudiness will continue to be a factor.

Little change is seen over the next seven days with the dry and stable summer pattern continuing over the next seven days. Heat will continue to build below the atmospheric “lid” with afternoon high temperatures a bit above seasonal averages. Temperature highs could reach the century mark at some reporting locations by late week into the weekend.

Guidance is continuing to suggest that an upper air trough.. or line.. of low pressure will deepen over the eastern USA with an increasing north northwesterly wind aloft over Texas. As a result, an unseasonably strong cold front will move southeastward through the eastern parts of the USA. The front is currently forecast to move southward and weaken quickly over central Texas by next Wednesday. Although I’m not mentioning at this time, if this part of the forecast verifies, we could see a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by next Wednesday and Thursday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through next Tuesday after which my confidence falls to low on Wednesday as a result of the possible weakening front and possible rain chances.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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