Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 22 July 2014

…. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. No Mention of Rain Through the Seven Day Forecast Period ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends westward from the lower Mississippi Valley westward into northeast Texas. A trough.. or line.. extends southward from southeastern Colorado into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are very light south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over central and west Texas and the southeastern Rockies. An upper air disturbance is over the southeastern USA over southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are light northeasterly 5 to 15 mph.

The upper level high pressure area continues overhead and to our immediate west and northwest.. this is keeping the atmospheric cap.. or “lid”..  in place with the dry summer weather pattern continuing as a result. Late night and early morning low cloudiness will continue to be a factor.

Little change is seen over the next seven days with the dry and stable summer pattern continuing over the next seven days. Heat will continue to build below the atmospheric “lid” with afternoon high temperatures a bit above seasonal averages. Temperature highs could reach the century mark at some reporting locations by late week into the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the balance of the seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel