Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 17 July 2014
…. An Unstable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. The Stationary Front Has Shifted Back Northeast of the Area ….
…. Good Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Through Tomorrow ….
On this Thursday morning…. the weakening stationary front extends northwestward from the southwestern coastal parishes of Louisiana into north central Texas around the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex then westward into New Mexico. High pressure.. north of the front.. is over Illinois. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over the western USA with a deep and unseasonably strong upper level low pressure trough (or line) extending from southeast of Hudson Bay southward through the Mississippi Valley and covering the eastern half of the USA. Within the broad counterclockwise circulation, a strong disturbance is moving south southeastward through the central plains states. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.
The upper level high pressure area continues far to our west and northwest as the unseasonably strong trough, or line, of upper air low pressure – and its counterclockwise circulation – continues in place over the eastern half of the country. The stationary front has weakened and has shifted back well to the north and east of the Austin area. This weakening front as well as west northwesterly wind aloft in combination with plentiful low level moisture and a more unstable air mass being available, scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across our area into tomorrow and even early tomorrow night. Through the period, National Weather Service guidance suggests we could see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain over our area with isolated totals to over 2 inches.
Temperatures, with more clouds and the chance of rain, will be closer to seasonal averages over the next few days.
A more stable weather pattern returns.. with sunshine and warmer temperatures.. for the weekend into next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high over the balance of the week (rainfall timing and amounts still being the issues) then very high Saturday into early next week.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel