Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 16 July 2014
…. An Unstable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. The Summer Cold Front Moving is Washing Out Overhead ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances On and Off Over the Next Few Days ….
On this Wednesday morning…. the weakening cold front extends westward from gulf coast of Mississippi and Alabama across the southern coastal parishes of Louisiana to overhead of the Austin area then into west Texas and the western Texas panhandle region. High pressure.. north of the front.. is over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over the western USA with a deepening and unseasonably strong upper level low pressure trough (or line) extending from southeast of Hudson Bay southward through the Mississippi Valley. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.
The upper level high pressure area continues far to our west and northwest as the unseasonably strong trough, or line, of upper air low pressure – and its counterclockwise circulation – continues in place from the Great Lake states through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, the cold front has weakened and is washing out overhead of the Austin area. As a result of this weakening front as well as northwesterly wind aloft in combination with plentiful low level moisture and a more unstable air mass being available, widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across our area. At this point, I expect the best rain chances to be today into tonight and again tomorrow into Friday. Through the period, National Weather Service guidance suggests we could see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain over our area.
Temperatures, with more clouds and the chance of rain, will be closer to seasonal averages over the next few days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high over the balance of the week (rainfall timing and amounts still being the issues) then very high Saturday into early next week.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel