Updated 600am CT – Monday / 14 July 2014
…. A More Unstable Weather Pattern ….
…. A Cold Front to Move into the State from the North ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Up Over the Next Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a southward moving cold front extends westward from northern Missouri through northern Kansas and Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues to shift westward over the western USA with a deepening upper level low pressure trough (or line) extending from southeast of Hudson Bay southwestward to the western Great Lakes. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable and less than 20 mph.
The upper level high pressure area continues to shift more westward over the western USA as the trough, or line, of upper air low pressure gets stronger over the Great Lake states. At the surface, the cold front.. to the north of the area.. is moving southward and will arrive in north and central Texas over the next few days. As a result of this surface and upper air wind pattern in addition to good low level moisture being available, a more unstable air mass is developing over our area.
While we will see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, the rain chances this week begin tomorrow and continue through the balance of the week. The best rain chances come tomorrow through tomorrow night and again Thursday into Friday.
Over the next week or so, National Weather Service guidance suggests we could see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain over our area.
Temperatures, which have been a little above average of late (100 yesterday at Camp Mabry), with more clouds and the chance of rain, I expect temperatures to be closer to seasonal averages over the next few days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today into tonight. By tomorrow through the end of the week, my forecast confidence is medium to high (rainfall timing and amounts being the issues).
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel