Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 8 July 2014

…. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is along a east-to-west line from southern Missouri into northern Oklahoma into southeastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the western.. southwestern and south central USA with a deepening upper level low pressure trough (or line) extending from the Great Lakes southward to middle Mississippi valley. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable and less than 15 mph.

The upper level high pressure area continues overhead and to our west. As a result, a mostly stable air mass prevails across our area.

This pattern will likely persist over the next seven days with little change in the sensible day-to-day weather over our area. While afternoon heating can always combine with our summer daytime heating to produce isolated afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms on any given summer day, I think the probability of rain at any given location precludes the mention of precipitation across the area for the next seven days.

The tropics remain quiet with no development expected over the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days.

Overall, I expect our temperatures to be close to or just above seasonal averages over the next seven days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel