Updated 845am CT – Monday / 7 July 2014

…. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over central and northern Alabama with another area of high pressure over northern New Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from southeastern Colorado through far west Texas and eastern Alabama. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the western and south central USA with an upper level low pressure trough (or line) extending from the Great Lakes southward to the Florida panhandle. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable and less than 15 mph.

The upper level high pressure area continues overhead and to our west. As a result, a mostly stable air mass prevails across our area.

This pattern will likely persist over the next seven days with little change in the sensible day-to-day weather over our area. Given daytime heating, we could see a few afternoon towering clouds but, given the very low precipitation probabilities, I will not include any mention of rain in my forecast.

The tropics remain quiet with no development expected over the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days.

Overall, I expect our temperatures to be close to or just above seasonal averages over the next seven days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel