110am CT – Wednesday / 3 April 2013
…. Rain and Thunderstorms Linger ….
At 110am.. Doppler weather radar indicates the back edge of rain showers and thunderstorms
moving eastward across the IH35 corridor. A cold front has settled southeastward across the
area with this latest line of thunderstorms.
Even though the upper level low pressure storm system will not move completely across the
area until later today and the chance of rain will continue until that happens.. the threat of severe
and inclement weather has decreased.
This is my last statement regarding this weather event.
tk
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1115pm CT – Tuesday / 02 April 2013
…. Line of Thunderstorms Quickly Approaching from the West ….
…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Allowed to Expire ….
At 1115pm.. Doppler weather radar showed a strong line of thunderstorms from Llano to
Horseshoe Bay to Blanco to near San Antonio.
This line of thunderstorms will reach the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor in the
12 midnight to 1am time frame with strong gusty straight line thunderstorm winds.. some
smaller hail along with brief heavy rain and frequent deadline cloud-to-ground lightning. The
straight line thunderstorm winds and hail should remain below severe limits with severe weather
most likely along the line from San Antonio southward.. well southwest of the Austin area.
Some additional low water crossings may see closures (we already have a few closed in the
Austin area now from rain earlier today).. but I continue to look at this rainfall that we’ve seen
today and any additional rainfall in the next few hours (1/2 to 1 inch perhaps) as very
beneficial. Nevertheless, there may be some urban and small stream flooding with additional
low water crossings closed over the next few hours.
I’ll continue to monitor.. tk
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1040pm CT – Tuesday / 2 April 2013
Please note that a line of thunderstorms is once again approaching the area from
the west…
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southplains_loop.gif
It will likely arrive in the Austin area around the midnight to 1am hour with gusty winds..
brief heavy rain and frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning.
I think the greatest threat of severe weather (larger hail and strong straight line thunderstorm winds) with this line will likely be greatest south of the Austin area proper.
…. Authority / SPC Storm Prediction Center ….
Here is the NWS SPC Mesoscale Discussion regarding this approaching threat..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0378.html
tk
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743pm CT – Tuesday / 2 April 2013
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for all of our area…
…. Authority / SPC Storm Prediction Center ….
For the latest on thunderstorm trends expected over the next few hours.. see this…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0375.html
tk
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700pm CT – Tues / 2Apr2013
…. Update for the Remainder of the Evening into the Late Night Hours ….
At 700pm… strongest thunderstorms have now moved well east of the IH35 corridor with
the strongest.. likely producing strong to damaging straight line wind and marginally severe
hail… in the Bastrop and Bastrop County area. These strong thunderstorms are contained
within a broad line of rain showers and thunderstorms extending from Hearne.. to
Thorndale.. Elgin through Bastrop to east and southeast of Lockhart. All activity is moving
east southeastward.
More rain showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight.. with another 1 to 2 inches of
rain possible.. as more thunderstorms developing to the west and advancing eastward
across our area. Hail will be the risk along with strong straight line thunderstorm winds.
Remember.. a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for Travis County and
metro Austin and all surrounding counties until 10pm.
As well, where the heavier rain has fallen, low water crossings are closed.. so please
be very cautious with the onset of the nighttime hours.
I’ll continue to keep you updated.
tk
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537pm CT – Tues / 2 April 2013
…. Attn ABIA Ops…
1/4 to 3/4 hail possible over airport in next 10-15 mins…
…. Authority NWS/Austin-San Antonio ….
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
WESTERN BASTROP COUNTY…
NORTH CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY…
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY…
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.
* AT 525 PM CDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROLLINGWOOD…OR NEAR AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INT AP…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MUSTANG RIDGE…CEDAR
CREEK…WYLDWOOD AND CAMP SWIFT.
—
507pm CT – Tues / 2 April 2013
…. Authority / NWS Storm Prediction Center ….
Update for the entire area… a good read for thunderstorm trends into the evening…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0372.html
tk
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415pm CT – Tues / 02 April 2013
… Strong thunderstorm.. with potential hail.. approaching the Austin metro from the west….
…. Authority NWS / Austin-San Antonio ….
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 409 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY... EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BURNET COUNTY... NORTH CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY... TRAVIS COUNTY... SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT. * AT 402 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAGO VISTA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR PARK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. * SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKEWAY...BEE CAVE...ANDERSON MILL...MANSFIELD DAM...WEST LAKE HILLS...ROLLINGWOOD...AUSTIN AND TANGLEWOOD FOREST.
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*** WEATHER UPDATE ***
*** WATCH/WARNING ISSUED ***
305pm CT – Tuesday / 2 April 2013
….. Authority NWS Storm Prediction Center ….
This watch is in effect until 10pm CT and includes all surrounding counties…
Travis /metro Austin/… Burnet.. Blanco.. Williamson… Hays.. Caldwell..
Bastrop.. Lee.. Milam Counties
For details…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0079.html
The thunderstorm near Marble Falls is severe.. hail to golfball size has just been reported
in the Kingsland /Llano County… movement is southeast at 25 mph.
Current warning:
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY…
SOUTHERN BURNET COUNTY…
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LLANO COUNTY…
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY…
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTY…
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.
* AT 303 PM CDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARBLE FALLS…AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT KINGSLAND.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE OATMEAL…SMITHWICK AND
SPICEWOOD.
—
205pm CT – Tuesday / 2 April 2013
…. “Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Area Through Tonight …
…. NWS SPC/Mesoscale Discussion Issued for Area (Watch Possible) …
Given that we have a strong upper air storm system bearing down on Texas from the northwest and a surface cold front moving southward slowly from north and west Texas, there is a good chance of rain showers and thunderstorms for the area through tomorrow. The risk of severe weather.. primarily larger hail and straightline thunderstorms winds.. will be from now until until later tonight (10pm to 12 midnight).
A beneficial rainfall.. upwards of 1 to 2 inches.. is possible across the area from now until
tomorrow night.
The NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a mesoscale discussion for the area..
a severe weather watch is possible sometime in the next few hours…
Here are the details…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0370.html
I’ll continue to monitor…
tk
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Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 2 April 2013
Upper Air Low Pressure Storm System and Cold Front Moving through Texas ….
Beneficial Rainfall Expected Next Few Days with Cooler Temperatures ….
Sunshine Returns with Warmer Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend ….
On this Tuesday… a slowly southward moving cold front extends from southern Alabama and Mississippi into central and northern Louisiana into north central Texas then west southwestward into far west Texas and New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of Texas.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong eastward moving upper level disturbance is over southern Utah. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are light to moderate west southwesterly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet blowing about 30 to 40 mph.
The upper level low pressure storm system out west and cold front to our north are moving through the southern plains states from the north and west with increasing atmospheric lift and instability with thickened cloud cover and better rain chances being the result.
By tonight into Wednesday, the upper air disturbance will move slowly overhead across the area as the strong surface cold front moves southward across the area. Rain showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across the area today into tonight and continue through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible as the system passes the area and rain chances decrease late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Some hail and gusty straight line winds may accompany the stronger thunderstorms as well tonight.
A dry and stable weather pattern develops with surface high pressure prevailing late Thursday and Friday and through next weekend with plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures expected.
Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel