Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 02 July 2014
…. A Fairly Stable Early Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Clouds with a Few Sprinkles ….
…. Slim Precipitation Chances Return Tomorrow Into the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the central Gulf of Mexico southwest of New Orleans, LA. A weakening stationary front extends from northern Alabama and central Mississippi to along the Arkansas/Louisiana border then across north central Texas into far west Texas near El Paso. A secondary cold front extends southwestward across southern Missouri through northern Oklahoma. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… although slightly reduced in size and strength, an area of upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the southern USA with a deepening upper level low pressure trough (line) extending southward from Hudson Bay into the middle Mississippi Valley. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are east southeasterly at 8 to 18 mph.
Even though it has weakened a little, the upper level high pressure area continues overhead and is continuing to act like a “lid” on the atmosphere. As a result, a stable air mass prevails across our area.
By tomorrow through the Fourth of July holiday weekend, forecast guidance suggests that the upper level high pressure area will continue to weaken a little with the deepening of the upper level trough over the eastern half of the country. As a more pronounced low level flow picks up from the Gulf of Mexico, it will allow for increased moisture and atmospheric instability combining with the weakening front to our north to result in widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Current projected rainfall amounts suggest that areas that see precipitation (with a relatively slim rainfall probability at any given location) will only see trace to 1/4 inch rainfall amounts.
Current guidance suggests that any rain chances will drop from the forecast by early next week.
Overall, I expect our temperatures to be close to or just above seasonal averages over the next seven days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today through tonight with a medium to high forecast confidence tomorrow through the holiday weekend (rain and thunderstorm chances with coverage, timing as well as rainfall amounts, being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high for the early and middle part of next week.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel