Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 1 July 2014
…. A Fairly Stable Early Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Clouds and Few Sprinkles ….
…. Slim Precipitation Chances Thursday Through the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the central Gulf of Mexico south southeast of New Orleans, LA with a low pressure area over southeastern New Mexico. A southeastward moving weakening cold front extends from southwestern Missouri through central Oklahoma then into north and west Texas south of Lubbock and into central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the southern USA with a deepening upper level low pressure trough (line) extending southward from Hudson Bay into central USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph.
With the upper level high pressure area continuing overhead and acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, a more stable air mass prevails across our area. With that has come late night and early morning low clouds that will continue to dominate with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky otherwise. Some light sprinkles may occur.. especially along the Balcones Escarpment and the IH35 corridor.. but rainfall amounts will be isolated and very light.
By Thursday through the Fourth of July holiday weekend, forecast guidance suggests that the upper level high pressure area will weaken a little as a more pronounced low level flow picks up from the Gulf of Mexico. This increased moisture and atmospheric instability combining with a very weak cold front that will come southward into central and north Texas by Thursday will result in isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly east through north of the local area. Current projected rainfall amounts suggest that areas that see precipitation (with a very slim rainfall probability at any given location) will only see trace to 1/4 inch rainfall amounts.
Overall, I expect our temperatures to be close to or just above seasonal averages over the next seven days.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow and tomorrow night with a high forecast confidence Thursday through Friday and the weekend (with better moisture returning from the Gulf of Mexico; possible slim rain and thunderstorm chances with coverage, timing as well as rainfall amounts being the issues).
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel