Updated 845am CT – Monday / 30 June 2014
…. A Fairly Stable Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Clouds and Few Sprinkles ….
…. Daytime High Temperatures Near Seasonal Averages ….
On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the north central Gulf of Mexico just southeast of New Orleans, LA with a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward through eastern New Mexico and into northern Mexico around El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues to be centered over the south central and southwestern USA with an upper level low pressure area over southern Canada southwest of Hudson Bay. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable at 10 to 20 mph.
With the upper level high pressure area overhead acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, a more stable air mass prevails across our area.
Late night and early morning low clouds will continue to dominate with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky otherwise. Some light sprinkles may occur.. especially along the Balcones Escarpment and the IH35 corridor.. but rainfall amounts will be isolated and very light.
By late week through the Fourth of July holiday weekend, forecast guidance suggests that the upper level high pressure area will weaken a little as a more pronounced low level flow picks up from the Gulf of Mexico. This increased moisture and atmospheric instability will result in isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for areas from Austin and east.. southeast.. and south of the local area over the Texas coastal plains. Current projected rainfall amounts suggest that most areas will only see trace to 1/4 inch rainfall amounts at any given location in those areas.
Overall, I expect our temperatures to be close to seasonal averages with a warming trend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through mid into late week with a medium to high forecast confidence returning late Thursday through Friday and the weekend (with better moisture returning from the Gulf of Mexico; possible slim rain and thunderstorm chances with coverage, timing as well as rainfall amounts being the issues).
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel