Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 26 June 2014
…. One More Day for this Unsettled Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Decrease After Today ….
…. Daytime High Temperatures Rebound This Weekend into Next Week ….
On this Thursday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward through southern New Mexico and into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a weakened area of upper level high pressure continues to be centered over northwestern Mexico with an upper level low pressure disturbance over central and eastern Texas. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable at 8 to 15 mph.
A moist and unstable air mass continues over our area. The upper level low pressure disturbance overhead is combining with low level moisture and daytime heating to maintain the more unstable weather pattern across our area. At this point, based on the latest computer and manual NWS forecast guidance, I think the highest rain chances will be today.. mainly in the daytime hours.. with potential rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1 inch possible. Severe weather (i.e., hail, damaging winds) is not expected.
By tomorrow and through the weekend and into early next week, late night and early morning low clouds will continue to dominate with a partly cloudy sky otherwise. Daytime heating will combine with low level atmospheric moisture and atmospheric instability to keep slim rain chances in the forecast.
Overall today, I expect our temperatures to be close to seasonal averages with a warming trend beginning tomorrow and continuing through the weekend into next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high today into early tonight (with rain and thunderstorm timing and chances as well as rainfall amounts being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high by tomorrow through the weekend and into early next week.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel