Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 24 June 2014
…. A Continued Unsettled Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Continue Through the Seven Day Forecast ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening stationary front is anchored to a surface low pressure area over southeastern Missouri and extends southwestward through central and southwestern Arkansas through central Texas into west Texas and central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the upper level high pressure area continues to be centered over northwestern Mexico. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is moving east southeastward over western Oklahoma. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are north northwesterly at 12 to 22 mph.
A moist air mass continues over our area. The east southeastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance.. over northwest Texas.. will combine with low level moisture and daytime heating as well as the weakening front to our north to maintain the more unstable weather pattern across our area.
At this point, based on the latest computer and manual NWS forecast guidance, I think the highest rain chances will be today into tomorrow with potential rainfall totals of 1/2 to 1 inch possible. Severe weather (i.e., hail, damaging winds) is not expected.
By Thursday through Friday and through the weekend and into early next week, late night and early morning low clouds will continue to dominate with a partly cloudy sky otherwise. Daytime heating will combine with low level atmospheric moisture and atmospheric instability to keep slim rain chances in the forecast.
Overall, over the next seven days, I expect our temperatures to be close or perhaps to degree or two below seasonal averages.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium over the next day or so (with rain and thunderstorm timing and chances as well as rainfall amounts being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to medium to high by Thursday through next weekend and into early next week.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel