Updated 845am CT – Monday / 23 June 2014
…. An Unsettled Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Over the Next Seven Days ….
On this Monday morning…. a low pressure area is over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma with a weak cold front extending southwestward from western Missouri and eastern Kansas.. through the low.. then into the Texas panhandle and then into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are east southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the upper level high pressure area.. or the “lid” on the atmosphere that is typical over the southern plains during the summer months.. has retreated west of the area and is centered is over northwestern Mexico. An upper level low pressure disturbance is settling southeastward over southern Oklahoma and north central Texas. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are north northwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.
The upper level low pressure disturbance to our north combining with the north northwesterly wind aloft and abundant low level moisture is creating a more unstable weather pattern across our area as we start the new week. Even so, my confidence in rain chances at any given time as well as expected rainfall amounts is rather low. At this point, based upon guidance, I think the highest rain chances will be tomorrow into tomorrow night, but it’s just something we’ll have to continue to monitor.
This type of weather pattern will persist through the balance of the seven day forecast period. Late night and early morning low clouds will continue with a partly to mostly cloudy sky otherwise. Daytime heating will combine with low level atmospheric moisture and atmospheric instability and rain cooled boundaries to keep at least slim rain chances in the forecast in all of the seven days ahead.
Latest NWS guidance suggests that parts of south central Texas will see 1 to 3 inches of beneficial rainfall over the next seven days.
Over the next seven days, I expect our temperatures will be close or perhaps to degree or two below average.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is low to medium over the next couple of days (with rain and thunderstorm timing and chances as well as expected rainfall amounts hard to figure). My forecast confidence rises back to medium to high by Thursday through next weekend.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel