Updated 845am CT – Friday / 20 June 2014
…. Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbances Continue to Move Northeastward to our West ….
…. Very Slim Thunderstorm Chances ….
…. Summer Officially Begins at 5:51am Austin Time Saturday Morning ….
On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over east central Mississippi. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward through eastern New Mexico and far west Texas east of El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are east southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the upper level high pressure is over northern Texas extending east southeastward into southeastern Texas. An upper level low pressure disturbance is over west Texas near San Angelo. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southerly 20 to 30 mph.
The “thorn in our side” meteorologically is the latest in a series of upper level low pressure disturbances that has moved into the southwestern part of the state since yesterday. The systems have resulted in heavy rains along the Rio Grande River between Eagle Pass and Del Rio and have resulted in a more unstable atmosphere locally. We saw a couple of light rain showers yesterday and its possible that we’ll see isolated rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm over the next couple of days primarily in the afternoon hours.
Otherwise.. I expect a pretty typical late spring/early summer weather pattern for south central Texas with temperatures close to seasonal averages.
By the way, the summer solstice occurs at 5:51 am Austin time tomorrow (Saturday) morning with the summer season officially beginning.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through Saturday night (with slim rain and thunderstorm chances and expected rainfall amounts). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Sunday and continuing through the early part of next week.
Have a good Friday and a safe weekend…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel