Updated 845am CT – Monday / 16 June 2014
…. An Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbances Passes to the West Beginning Tomorrow ….
…. Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Return ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Pattern Returns Thursday Through the Weekend ….
On this Monday morning…. a low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward through eastern New Mexico and far west Texas east of El Paso. Surface high pressure is located over eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the upper level high pressure is over northern Mexico northeastward across Texas and into the lower Mississippi valley. A trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward along the west coast of the USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are pretty light and variable.
A dry and stable weather pattern continues into the new week with afternoon high temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages.
By tomorrow and continuing into Wednesday.. part of the low pressure trough.. along the west coast.. will break loose and move from northern Mexico into west and then north central Texas as it weakens. With this system passing northeastward to our west, our atmosphere will turn a bit more unstable with additional atmospheric lift expected as well. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected locally.. especially along and west of the IH35 corridor.. beginning tomorrow and continuing through Wednesday.
With the passage of the upper air disturbance, a drier and more stable atmosphere will return by Wednesday night into Thursday with clouds thinning a bit with rain chances dropping from the forecast. The pattern will persist through the remainder of the week and through next weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today into tonight. My confidence falls back to medium to high for tomorrow through Wednesday and Wednesday night (rain chances, timing and amounts being the question). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Thursday and continuing through the upcoming weekend.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel