Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 11 June 2014
…. Stationary Front Southeast of the IH35 Corridor ….
…. Stable / Dry Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Afternoon High Temperatures Warming to Well Above Normal Through Thursday ….
…. Watching Another Upper Air Disturbance/Weak Cold Front Late Thursday Night ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends southward from a surface low pressure area over central Illinois down through western Mississippi and south central Louisiana then westward through the Houston area to south of San Antonio to near Del Rio. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over east and central Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counter clockwise rotating upper low pressure area is over northern Illinois with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward through the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.
The weakening front to the southeast of the local area will continue to wash out today through tonight with surface winds returning south southeasterly. Upper air high pressure has rebuilt over our area. This upper air high pressure area acts like a “lid” on the atmosphere allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm to well above average. Temperatures over parts of our area west of the IH35 corridor may get to 100 degrees tomorrow when upper level “lid” is strongest.
Another upper air low pressure disturbance and associated weak surface cold front will progress southeastward into the area late tomorrow night into early Friday. Atmospheric model guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms may develop off to our north through northeast of the local area along the front. While I have my doubt about whether these thunderstorms will affect our local area, it is very possible that we’ll see lightning off to the north and northeast tomorrow night into the predawn hours Friday with the passage of this system.
Sunshine will continue with afternoon high temperatures down a few degrees Friday through the weekend into early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow.. then drops to medium to high tomorrow night into early Friday (as it regards thunderstorm and rain chances). My forecast confidence goes back to very high for Friday through the weekend and into the first half of next week.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel