Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 10 June 2014
…. Weakening Cold Front Southeast of the IH35 Corridor ….
…. Stable / Dry Weather Pattern Through the Remainder of the Week ….
…. Afternoon High Temperatures Warming to Well Above Normal ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from a surface low pressure area over northwest Arkansas and extends south southwestward into northwest Louisiana into the Texas coastal plains from northwest of Houston to south of San Antonio then westward into northern Mexico south through southwest of Del Rio. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are west northwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counter clockwise rotating upper low pressure area is over southwestern Missouri and is moving slowly eastward. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
With the passing northeastward of the upper air low pressure area and the movement of the weakening cold front to the southeast of our area, our atmosphere has become more unstable.
The weakening front to the southeast of the local area will wash out by later today and into tonight with surface winds returning south southeasterly by late tonight into tomorrow.
Upper air high pressure is rebuilding across the area in the wake of the upper air low pressure disturbance. As it does so, it acts like a “lid” on the atmosphere allowing afternoon high temperatures to warm to well above average by tomorrow into Thursday. Temperatures over parts of our area may approach 100 degrees on Thursday when upper level “lid” is strongest.
Another weak cold front will progress southeastward into the area late Thursday night into early Friday. Some of the atmospheric model guidance suggests that thunderstorms may develop off to our north through northeast of the local area along the front but I don’t think those thunderstorms will affect our local area.
Sunshine will continue with afternoon high temperatures down a few degrees Friday through the weekend into early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven day period.. although I’ll watch Thursday night regarding a remote thunderstorm possibility off to our northeast.
Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel