Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Friday / 6 June 2014

…. Little Change in the Stable Late Spring/Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. No Precipitation Into the Weekend ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Reappear Late Sunday into the First Half of Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends westward from middle  Tennessee into northern Arkansas.. central Oklahoma.. the Texas panhandle then into a surface low pressure in southeastern New Mexico. The stationary front continues northwestward from the surface low into western New Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from the surface low into far west Texas around El Paso and then into northern Mexico. Surface high pressure is to our distant east and southeast over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is situated from east Texas and western Louisiana westward through northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable and less than 20 mph.

Still not much change in our weather pattern on this Friday morning.

With the upper air high pressure area continuing its hold on the area and acting like a “lid on the atmosphere,” our atmosphere continues to be quite stable in a typical late spring/early summer weather pattern. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal temperatures into the weekend with no mention of precipitation.

Model guidance continues to suggest that a cold front will move deeper southward into Texas by late Sunday night into Monday as it weakens and washes out. It still appears that this may add just enough instability back into our atmospheric environment to give us slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms for the time period. The latest NWS rainfall guidance.. for the next seven day period.. has gone drier again with 1/4 inch rainfall, at most, over the next seven day period.

As mentioned yesterday, atmospheric forecast guidance is monitoring an area of thunderstorms over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campache. Some of that guidance tries to develop a tropical disturbance with time. At this point, I really don’t see this potential disturbance having much effect on our weather but nevertheless we need to watch this systems.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through Sunday. By Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday, my forecast confidence falls to low to medium as the approaching and weakening cold front and associated thunderstorm chances show up in the forecast. By Wednesday and Thursday, my forecast confidence rises back to high to very high as a more stable weather pattern develops.

A reminder that the Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season started this last Sunday (1 June). Here is a list of the tropical cyclone names, as assigned by the World Meteorological Organization, to be used this coming season in the Atlantic Ocean basin…

Arthur.. Bertha.. Cristobal.. Dolly.. Edouard.. Fay.. Gonzalo.. Hanna.. Isaias.. Josephine.. Kyle.. Laura.. Marco.. Nana.. Omar.. Paulette.. Rene.. Sally.. Teddy.. Vicky.. and Wilfred..

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me: