Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 5 June 2014
…. Little Change in the Stable Late Spring/Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. Other Than a Few Morning Sprinkles.. No Precipitation Into the Weekend ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Reappear Sunday into the First Half of Next Week ….
On this Thursday morning…. a weakening cold front extends westward from middle and western Tennessee into northern Arkansas into a surface low pressure in northwestern Oklahoma. A cold front continues westward from the low across the Texas panhandle into northern New Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from the surface low into west Texas and southern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is to our east and southeast over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a building ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is situated from Texas west southwestward through northern Mexico. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable and less than 20 mph.
Not much change in our weather pattern on this Thursday.
With the upper air high pressure area continuing its hold on the area and acting like a “lid on the atmosphere,” our atmosphere continues to be quite stable as we find ourselves in a typical late spring/early summer weather pattern. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal temperatures into the weekend with no mention of precipitation other than perhaps a few sprinkles from the morning low cloud deck.
Longer range atmospheric model guidance continues to suggest that a cold front will move deeper southward into Texas by Sunday into Monday as it weakens and washes out. It still appears that this may add just enough instability back into our atmospheric environment to give us slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms for the time period. The latest NWS rainfall guidance.. for the next seven day period.. suggests increasing rainfall amounts in the range of one to two inches locally so let’s keep an eye on those thunderstorms chances for early next week.
In addition, let’s keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico when we get into next week. Some of the atmospheric forecasts try to develop a tropical disturbance over the central Gulf by the end of next week. At this point, it is worth noting that I do not attribute the higher rainfall guidance, as mentioned above, to this potential disturbance since any effect on Texas would come beyond the seven day forecast period.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through Saturday night. By Sunday and Sunday night, my forecast confidence falls to medium as the approaching cold front and associated thunderstorm chances show up in the forecast. By Monday through Wednesday, my forecast confidence falls to low as the uncertainty involving the frontal/precipitation timing as well as precipitation amounts become big issues.
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A reminder that the Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season started this last Sunday (1 June). Here is a list of the tropical cyclone names, as assigned by the World Meteorological Organization, to be used this coming season in the Atlantic Ocean basin…
Arthur.. Bertha.. Cristobal.. Dolly.. Edouard.. Fay.. Gonzalo.. Hanna.. Isaias.. Josephine.. Kyle.. Laura.. Marco.. Nana.. Omar.. Paulette.. Rene.. Sally.. Teddy.. Vicky.. and Wilfred..
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Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
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