Updated 845am CDT Monday / 1 April 2013
Well Above Average Temperatures Today …
Rain Chances Increase Tonight through Mid Week …
Beneficial Rainfall Expected Tomorrow Through Mid Week with Cooler Temperatures …
On this Monday… a weak stationary front extends westward from central Mississippi and northern Louisiana into east and south central Texas into the southwestern part of Texas. Another.. stronger.. cold front extends westward from the Tennessee Valley region westward through Arkansas and extreme northern Oklahoma and into a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are light northerly or light and variable across our area of Texas.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a low pressure area over the northeastern USA with another over northwestern Nevada. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are light to moderate west northwesterly with winds over Austin at about 18,500 feet blowing about 30 to 40 mph.
As we begin the new week.. the weak front that moved through the area with a few rain showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon.. has now started shifting northward as a warm front as yet another upper air low pressure storm system approaches from the west.
By later tonight into Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper air disturbance will move slowly across the area as another strong surface cold front moves southeastward across the area. Rain showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across the area by tomorrow night into Wednesday as the cold front passes through. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible as the system passes the area and rain chances decrease late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
At this point, the atmosphere does not seem to support a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with this passing system but, as mentioned above, a beneficial rainfall event is expected locally.
A dry and stable weather pattern develops with surface high pressure prevailing late Thursday and Friday and through next weekend with plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures expected.
Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel