Updated 845am CT – Tuesday / 3 June 2014
…. Little Change in the Stable Late Spring/Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. No Precipitation Through the Next Five or Six Days ….
…. Watching a Cold Front and Perhaps Some Rain Chances Sunday into Monday ….
On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is off the Atlantic east coast east southeast of North Carolina. An area of low pressure is situated over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. extending southward through eastern New Mexico and far west Texas around El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a building ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is situated from west Texas southwestward into northern Mexico. On either side of the upper level high… low pressure troughs.. or lines.. of upper air low pressure are situated over the west coast of the USA as well as over the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River valley regions. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northeasterly 40 to 50 mph.
With the upper air high pressure area strengthening its hold on the area and acting like a “lid on the atmosphere,” our atmosphere continues to become increasingly stable as we find ourselves in a typical late spring/early summer weather pattern. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal temperatures over the next five or six days with no mention of precipitation.
Longer range atmospheric model guidance suggests that a cold front may move southward into north Texas by Sunday into Monday as it weakens and washes out. It may add just enough instability back into our atmospheric environment to give us slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms for the time period.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high over the next five or six day period. By Sunday and Monday, my confidence falls to low to medium as the approaching cold front and associated thunderstorm chances show up in the forecast. Frontal/precipitation timing as well as any precipitation amounts are the variables that cause my drop in forecast confidence.
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A reminder that the Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season started on Sunday (1 June). Here is a list of the tropical cyclone names, as assigned by the World Meteorological Organization, to be used this coming season in the Atlantic Ocean basin…
Arthur.. Bertha.. Cristobal.. Dolly.. Edouard.. Fay.. Gonzalo.. Hanna.. Isaias.. Josephine.. Kyle.. Laura.. Marco.. Nana.. Omar.. Paulette.. Rene.. Sally.. Teddy.. Vicky.. and Wilfred..
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Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel