Updated 845am CT – Monday / 2 June 2014
…. A Stable Late Spring/Early Summer Weather Pattern ….
…. No Precipitation in My Seven Day Forecast ….
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure is over the east central coast of USA with a cold front extending southwestward from southern Kansas into a surface low over the Texas panhandle. A trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends southward into southwest Texas while a cold front extends southwestward from the low into central New Mexico then northwestward into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counterclockwise rotating low pressure area is over the Gulf of Mexico with another trough.. or line.. extending southward along the west coast of the USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northerly 30 to 40 mph.
Our atmosphere continues to become increasingly stable as we find ourselves in a typical late spring/early summer weather pattern. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above seasonal temperatures over the next seven days with no mention of precipitation.
Longer range atmospheric model guidance suggests that several cold fronts may move southward into the southern plains beyond the seven day forecast period with perhaps a better chance of rain especially to the north of our area.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high over the next seven day period.
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A reminder that the Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season started on Sunday (1 June). Here is a list of the tropical cyclone names, as assigned by the World Meteorological Organization, to be used this coming season in the Atlantic Ocean basin…
Arthur.. Bertha.. Cristobal.. Dolly.. Edouard.. Fay.. Gonzalo.. Hanna.. Isaias.. Josephine.. Kyle.. Laura.. Marco.. Nana.. Omar.. Paulette.. Rene.. Sally.. Teddy.. Vicky.. and Wilfred..
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Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel