Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 29 May 2014
…. Upper Level Low Spins over Southern Arkansas as It Begins to Shifts Southwestward ….
…. A Slightly Better Rain Chance on the Way Tomorrow into Saturday ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern by Late Sunday into Next Week ….
On this Thursday morning…. a weak surface low pressure area is rotating counterclockwise over southeastern Arkansas with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward into southwestern Louisiana and the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure is over western Oklahoma.. the Texas panhandle and northeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong counterclockwise rotating low pressure area is over southern and central Arkansas. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.
The upper level and surface low pressure area.. responsible for the rains last weekend into early this week and currently over Arkansas.. will weaken over the next 24 hours as it shifts back west southwestward toward our area.
As a result, we’ll see more cloudiness and a more unstable atmosphere develop by tomorrow.. tomorrow night into Saturday. We’ll see an slight increase in the rain chances for the time period with rainfall amounts generally remaining… based on the current NWS rainfall forecast amount guidance.. below 1/2 inch. No severe weather is anticipated although thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and, of course, frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning.
As the system continues to dissipate and weaken, our atmosphere will again become more stable by late in the weekend through much of next week with rain chances disappearing from the forecast with decreased cloudiness as well. As the clouds decrease a bit, I expect near average temperatures for the area for much of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through Sunday (some uncertainty about timing of precipitation as well as exact rainfall amounts) and then very high for Sunday night through much of next week.
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A reminder that the Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season starts this coming Sunday. Here is a list of the tropical cyclone names, as assigned by the World Meteorological Organization, to be used this coming season in the Atlantic Ocean basin…
Arthur.. Bertha.. Cristobal.. Dolly.. Edouard.. Fay.. Gonzalo.. Hanna.. Isaias.. Josephine.. Kyle.. Laura.. Marco.. Nana.. Omar.. Paulette.. Rene.. Sally.. Teddy.. Vicky.. and Wilfred..
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Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel