Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Monday / 12 May 2014

…. Another Round of Thunderstorms.. Some Possibly Severe.. Today into Tonight ….
…. A Flash Flood Watch in Effect Tonight Through Tomorrow Morning ….
…. A Rather Strong Cold Front Moving Through Late Tonight ….

On this Monday morning…. a strong cold front is moving southeastward from central Oklahoma southwestward into west central Texas into southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a counterclockwise rotating trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends from the central Rockies south southwestward into northern Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. The upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are south southwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

As the surface cold front moves southeastward into the area by a little after midnight tonight and the upper air disturbance approaches the area from the west..¬† atmospheric lift and instability will be maximized. As a result, I expect a round of thunderstorms by later today¬† into tonight. Based on the latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook, there is a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms along with the possibility of periods of heavy rain.

The upper level disturbance out west will lag behind the cold front; as a result, rain showers
and even some thunderstorms will continue to “overrun” the much cooler surface air for about 12 to 18 hours (through the day tomorrow into tomorrow night) following the cold frontal passage.

Once the front passes and the upper level trough moves east of the area.. a drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail with a clearing sky and cooler temperatures, especially at night, through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will move east of the area by Friday allowing for a return south southeasterly surface wind by Friday into the weekend with a few clouds returning

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to today into tonight (mainly regarding exact rainfall amounts as well as the potential for stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms and flash flooding). My forecast confidence for tomorrow into tomorrow night is high to very high… and then is very high for Wednesday through our upcoming weekend.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel