Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 8 May 2014
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances for Today into Tomorrow ….
…. Strong Thunderstorms Possible Today into Tonight ….
…. A Cold Front by Next Tuesday ….
On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure is to our east over the western Atlantic Ocean. A low pressure area is over northern Kansas /997 mb/ with a cold front/dry line extending from the low southward into western Oklahoma into west and southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a fairly deep counterclockwise rotating trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends from southern Canada southward to New Mexico and Arizona and northern Mexico. The upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.
Surface southerly surface winds continue to be quite efficient over the last couple of days in returning low level moisture to our area. Late night and early morning low cloudiness have returned with scattered light rain showers and even a few thunderstorms in some areas this morning as the air mass above grows more unstable.
By midday today into tonight, the deep upper air low pressure trough.. or line.. of low pressure will approach and move into the southern plains along with a weakening cold front with increasing atmospheric lift and instability being the result. While I still expect the best atmospheric lift to remain north of the local area, scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will still be possible for the remainder of the day today with the activity becoming less widespread by tonight into tomorrow. The latest rainfall guidance suggests that some areas may see 1 to 2 inches or more possible. At the same time, a threat of stronger thunderstorms.. with some hail and strong straight line winds.. are possible this afternoon into tonight. The cold front will have a hard time making it to the Austin area with it washing out overhead of our local area by late tonight into Friday.
We’re looking at a return to a partly cloudy sky for the area by Saturday afternoon through Sunday into the first half of next week.
Another cold front.. this one a bit stronger.. will move through the area with a renewed chance of rain showers and thunderstorms for the Monday through Monday night into early Tuesday morning time frame.
Clearing.. cooler and less humid conditions will move into the area for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high for today through tomorrow night reference uncertainty regarding rain chances, exact rainfall timing, rainfall amounts as well as the potential for stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms. My forecast confidence for Saturday into Sunday is back to high to very high before falling back to medium for late Monday and Tuesday regarding that next cold front and the associated rain chances (timing, etc).
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel