Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 7 May 2014

…. More Clouds and Increased Humidity ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances on the Increase by Tonight into Late Week ….
…. Another Cold Front by Early Next Tuesday ….

On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure is to our east over the southwest North Atlantic Ocean. A developing low pressure area is over southwestern Kansas and southeast Colorado /998 mb/ with a warm front extending eastward from the low through southern Iowa into the Ohio River valley. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from warm, moist air to the east.. extends from the low southward into western Oklahoma into southwest Texas. A cold front is moving eastward in western New Mexico. A broad surface trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the low through western Oklahoma and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep counterclockwise rotating trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends from eastern Alberta southward to Arizona and northwestern Mexico. The upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are southwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

Surface southerly surface winds continue to be quite efficient over the last couple of days in returning low level moisture to our area. Late night and early morning low cloudiness have returned with even a few light rain showers in some areas this morning.

By late tonight and tomorrow through Friday, the deep upper air low pressure trough.. or line.. of low pressure will approach and move into the southern plains along with a weakening cold front with increasing atmospheric lift and instability being the result. While I still expect the best atmospheric lift to remain north of the local area, widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will still be possible locally late tonight through Thursday and Friday with late week rainfall amounts to 1 inch or more possible. At the same time, a threat of stronger thunderstorms.. with some hail and strong straight line winds.. are possible tomorrow into tomorrow night. The cold front will have a hard time making it to the Austin area with it washing out overhead of our local area by late Friday night into early Saturday.

We’re looking at a return to a partly cloudy sky for the area by Saturday afternoon through Sunday into the first half of next week. Another cold front.. this one a bit stronger.. will move through the area with a few rain showers and thunderstorms by late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high  today and tonight. My forecast confidence falls back to medium to high for tomorrow through Friday night reference uncertainty regarding rain chances, exact rainfall timing, rainfall amounts as well as the potential for stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms. My forecast confidence for Saturday into Sunday is back to high to very high before falling back to medium for late Monday and Tuesday regarding that next cold front and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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