Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 24 April 2014
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Today and Again over the Weekend ….
…. A Strong Cold Front into Texas Late Sunday into Monday ….
On this Thursday morning…. a developing surface low pressure area /1000mb/ is over northwest Oklahoma with a cold front extending southwestward from northwest Missouri into the low and then into far west Texas and southern New Mexico. Surface high pressure /1014mb/ is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southward from the western Dakotas into far west Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly 45 to 55 mph.
With the high pressure area to our east and the developing low to our northwest.. we’re seeing a south southeasterly surface wind across our area.
Morning low clouds will give way to a partly cloudy sky today as the tail end of the upper level trough as well as a weak associated cold front moves southeastward into the area. As a result, isolated rain showers and thunderstorms could develop with daytime heating.. however, rain chances are very slim.
The weak front will wash out overhead by tomorrow and result in a quick return to a south southeasterly surface wind. Other than morning low clouds.. partly cloudy skies will prevail tomorrow through the weekend.
Another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will approach the area over the weekend with a stronger cold front approaches our area by late Sunday night into early Monday. Rain and thunderstorm chances look limited in the Saturday night through Sunday and Sunday night period in advance of the front. The front will move through the Austin area by around sunrise Monday morning.
Clearing skies.. much cooler and drier area for much of next week as high pressure from southern Canada and the Rockies builds southward into the southern plains states.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today (isolated thunderstorms this afternoon). My confidence rises back to high to very high tomorrow through Saturday.. then back to medium to high confidence for Saturday night through Sunday night into very early Monday as the next upper level low pressure storm system and surface cold fronts approaches the area. Forecast confidence rises back to very high in the wake of the series of cold fronts for early next week.
Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel