Updated 845am CT – Monday / 14 April 2014
…. Much Cooler Temperatures ….
…. After Clouds and Rain/Thunderstorms this Morning, Sunshine Returns ….
…. Clouds Increase Again Late Week ….
On this Monday morning…. a strong cold front is moving southeastward from central Arkansas into east Texas and along the Texas coastal plains into southwest Texas. Unseasonably strong surface high pressure /1033mb/ is building southeastward from Wyoming and Montana. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward through the central USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly at 65 to 75 mph.
Even in the wake of a cold front that moved through the Austin area in the 6am hour this morning… a strong upper level trough of low pressure managed to take advantage of a moist.. warm layer (above the colder air at the surface) to produce strong thunderstorms and severe hail up to the size of golf balls earlier today. Precipitation is now moving eastward and should move out of the area by midday into the afternoon as skies partially clear.
Clear skies.. drier and unseasonably cool air will continue to settle into the area over the next couple of days. Overnight low temperatures will be near the freezing mark in typically cooler outlying and low lying areas away from the metro Austin area tonight and again Tuesday night.
Southerly surface winds will return by Wednesday through the latter part of the week into the weekend with increased cloud cover.. increased humidity and some relative slim rain chances.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high tonight through Wednesday and Wednesday night. My forecast confidence is high for late week into the weekend (reference the increase in clouds and any rain chances).
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel