Updated 845am CT – Monday / 31 March 2014
…. Muggy Conditions Return ….
…. Widely Scattered Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Mid/Late Week ….
…. A Cold Front Due Early Friday ….
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure /1022mb/ is situated from the Ohio Valley southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure area /992mb/ is over central Nebraska with a cold front extending from the low southward into west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… upper level low pressure disturbances are situated off the eastern/northeastern US seaboard with another strong disturbance over western Nebraska. A third system is off the northwestern coast of the USA over the eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.
Southerly surface winds have returned low level moisture to the area as the strong eastward moving surface and upper level low pressure area.. and its associated counterclockwise wind flow.. deepens over Nebraska.
Late night and early morning low cloudiness along with associated patchy drizzle and fog can be expected over the next few days.
By Wednesday into Thursday.. a dry line.. ushering in drier continental tropical air from northern Mexico and the southwestern part of our state.. will attempt to move eastward into the area. As that occurs and our atmosphere grows a little more unstable, we’ll see slightly better rain shower and thunderstorm chances locally. Coverage is expected.. at best.. to be widely scattered across our area.
By late Thursday night into the predawn hours on Friday, a cold front will surge southeastward across the area. We could see a few rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area. Surface high pressure.. marked by drier and cooler air.. will settle southward across our area for Friday and into the weekend.
There is some initial concern that a more active upper air pattern will eject several disturbances over the area back over the cooler air by the weekend which will keep overrunning cloud cover a little more than you might expect following a cold frontal passage.
I will not include rain chances at this point but will continue to monitor.
It looks like another cold front will move through the area next Monday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence for today through mid week is high. My forecast confidence falls back to medium by Wednesday and Thursday through the weekend (the cold frontal timing early Friday and cloud/rain chances for the forecast period being the primary issue).
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel