Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 26 March 2014
…. Rain Chances Down Slightly Today and Tonight ….
…. Much Warmer Thursday into Friday with the Return to Sunshine ….
…. A Cold Front Due Friday ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure /1028mb/ is situated over the middle Mississippi Valley. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad upper level low pressure trough is over the eastern half of the USA with an east northeastward moving upper level low pressure area over west Texas. Another broad area of upper air low pressure is along the west coast of the USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.
Our next upper level low pressure disturbance, just to our west and northwest, will cross the area by later today.. tonight into early Thursday with increased cloud cover and better rain and even a few thunderstorms. Guidance is showing the best lift and dynamics passing to our north and northwest so, as a result, I’ve dropped our rain chances for today and tonight a little. Current NWS guidance suggests upwards of 1/4 inch of rain locally with this passing system. Isolated thunderstorms.. with frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning.. are still possible later this afternoon into tonight.
By tomorrow, as the upper air system moves east of the area, clouds will break with more sunshine and much warmer temperatures expected with this pattern continuing into Friday.
Another cold front is expected in the area by sometime Friday but it will be a “dry” front and will result in a cool down as abundant sunshine continues into the weekend and into early next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence for today into tonight is medium to high (timing of the passage of the upper level low and associated rain chances being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by tomorrow midday and afternoon through the weekend (the cold frontal timing on Friday being the primary uncertain issue).
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel